From 28 – 29 January 2025, VERTIC, in collaboration with the African Nuclear Disarmament Verification Hub and the Radiation and Health Physics Unit of the University of the Witwatersrand hosted a seminar to discuss the current global context, and its impact on the impact of the current global situation on prospects for nuclear disarmament and verification. This period is marked geopolitical instability and dangerous nuclear rhetoric. It appears that all nuclear-armed States are presently increasing their nuclear weapons stocks as well as upgrading their delivery systems. Furthermore, the last two Preparatory Committee meetings in the current 2026 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Review Cycle failed to agree on any substantive issues for recommendation to the forthcoming review conference. As stated by the UN Secretary General geopolitical tensions have escalated the risk of nuclear warfare to its highest point in decades and eroded the international non-proliferation architecture.
Held at the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, South Africa, the seminar was opened by Mrs Wera Helstrøm, Deputy Head of Mission, Royal Norwegian Embassy in Pretoria. A high-profile panel kicked-off the proceedings by identifying key challenges and opportunities for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, and in particular nuclear disarmament verification, given the current geopolitical context.
Panelists included representatives from the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) and South Africa’s Department of International Relations and Co-operation as well as political scientists and academics from the Universities of the Free State, Witwatersrand and the the Western Cape—all based in South Africa.
Participants then engaged with a number of topics, including whether the geopolitical context impacts differently on the States possessing nuclear weapons that are party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as opposed to those who are outside of the NPT?; whether African States and Non-Aligned Movement Member States may shift their focus from their earlier positions on nuclear disarmament due to the current geopolitical context; and expectations for the 2025 NPT Preparatory Committee meeting and the 2026 Review Conference.
Notwithstanding, current geopolitical tensions, work largely continues unabated on the technical aspects of nuclear disarmament verification as evidenced by the ongoing initiatives within the International Partnership for Nuclear Disarmament Verification (IPNDV), the Quad Nuclear Verification Partnership (the Quad) and many academic and civil society organisations, such as VERTIC. Importantly, participants discussed and debated how to galvanise African States (and other so-called smaller states within the Non-Aligned Movement to submit their views to the UN Secretary General on the possible establishment of a Group of Scientific and Technical Experts on Nuclear Disarmament Verification within the UN family. Proposed by Brazil and Norway, if such a Group were to be established, it could provide unique practical benefits in support of the long-term goal of nuclear disarmament and enable UN Member States—including African states—to work collaboratively on nuclear disarmament verification in a multilateral setting.
